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Wednesday, June 24, 2015

Crypto `Scarcity' And Potential Fiat Value - Part One

Hello Barfstars.... Without question my 3 part post and analysis of scarcity in May has been this blogs most popular posts of the `Bitcoin Era' of Barfstew - those links are at the bottom of this post. Pageviews are now approaching 2000 a day on a good day (advertisers, this is a bargain) - males looking for beautiful information about a new passion. Cryptocurrencies. The new coin collecting.

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Today's post once again will be featuring an analysis of the various `fiat leaders' at certain levels of scarcity - much like the previous post. Certainly when you are investing in Crypto it's important to know - scarcity - and `usefulness'/utility - and presence/following in community.... as basic attributes of a cryptocoin. (IMO - Avoid coins with no website. And be very cautious about ? as the figure of coins available, many coins list ? making your purchase a pure gamble.)

More importantly - I've grouped this analysis to provide coins that aren't so much apples to oranges - as each coin in a group is comparable in size to at least a factor of 2.

Are the coins in your portfolio... over priced or under-priced? What dreams do you have for the value of the coins in your portfolio?
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Extreme Abundance Coins ; 150 Billion+ Available
(5 coins in category) 
BYTECOIN - 0.000028
IF the coin you are investing in has over 150 billion available remember that BYTE is the top valued coin at 2/1000th's of a penny.
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Abundance Coins; 83 Billion - 113 Billion Available
(10 coins in category)
DOGECOIN - 0.0002
Dogecoin is the most valuable coin in fiat value in this category, worth 2/100th's of a cent.
The least valuable coin in this category is the CORGICOIN - worth  $ 3e-08 - that might suggest that Corgi is the most undervalued in this category - up 30% in the past 7 days too.
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Dream Big Coins; 30 Billion - 69 Billion Available
(7 coins in category)
RIPPLE  is the most valuable coin in fiat value in this category, worth ONE CENT. (0.0106)
Five coins in this category all have very similar values at 0.000002 or 0.000003 (2 or 3, - 10,000th's of a cent) FLAPPY, KARMA, TICKETS, HTML AND PANDA. Only ZEIT coin has `lifted off' at a value of 0.000012 - then again any of the other five at this value is a 4-6 fold increase potential.
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 Dream Coins; 12 Billion - 27 Billion Available
(10 coins in category)
MINTCOIN is the most valuable coin in fiat value in this category, worth 0.000075 - or 7.5 1000th's of a penny.
Most of the other coins of this category have values similar to the Dream Big Coins category above 0.000002 or 0.000003 - only Reddcoin at 0.000015 and Smileycoin at 0.000007 have broken out from the pack. This might suggest that the coins worth 0.000002 or `3' - might have some room to run. Indeed a look at some of these coins increases in just the last 7 days might suggest some upward movement - 
HEISENBERG +2,158%
CARPEDIEM +363%
SMILEY+208%
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 Fantasy Coins; 6 Billion - 10 Billion Available
(10 coins in category)
DIGITALNOTE is the most valuable coin in fiat value in this category, worth 0.00019 -- about 1/50th of a penny.
Two coins are not worth even 0.000001 including PHOTON,  and BATCOIN. But are DEVCOIN and DOGECOINDARK opportunies and undervalued?
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 Expectation Coins; 2.5 Billion - 5.2 Billion Available
(6 coins in category)
BITSHARES edges out STELLAR in market cap and fiat value in this competitive category. Bitshares (0.0073 -- 7/10th's of a penny) Stellar (0.0035 - a 1/3 of a penny)...each worth 1000's of times what POPULAR coin is valued at. 
And is LITEDOGE an opportunity at Bittrex when valued at (0.000007)? 
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Possibility Coins; 1.0 Billion - 2.3 Billion Available
(14 coins in category)
This VERY competitive category has only produced one real winner .... the NXT coin 0.012 fiat... valued at just over a penny and perhaps the most traded coin among multiple exchanges and for multiple currencies. That alone can be a driver of `value' occasionally.
Nearly ALL of the other cryptocurrencies in this category are light years behind in fiat value. IF you want a LONG SHOT - try UFO coin (what if one lands?) - or perhaps COMMUNITY COIN at Cryptsy - (not even a current website... but what a name). 
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Expect Part Two Soon
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Monday, May 25, 2015

The `Scarcity' Segmentation Of Virtual Currencies --- Examined (PART ONE) Coins Over 58 Million Available

A couple weeks ago I employed some of my natural `market research' skills by examining one aspect... one attribute - of the different `virtual currencies'... coins available... and that is... `the number available' - or what amounts to scarcity. Yes, the number available (using one `best source CoinMarketCap.Com)... such as ...does a `coin' have just a `handful' available, or, are there literally BILLIONS available. (This research into this data was done about May 7th.) Many coin traders have only the vaguest ideas about most coins... despite being able to tell you that Bitcoin will never exceed 22 million (or whatever the exact figure is). 

One reason I did this background legwork was to answer the question - Which of these `scarcity' strategies `works', at getting a coin the `attention and awareness' it needs to break through the enormous `clutter of coins' currently on the marketplace exchanges and beyond? Is it the `here I am and I am billions strong wanting to be the NEXT BIG thing? Or, is it the `I wanna be the next BITCOIN' positioning (similar number of coins to bitcoin) ... sought by many coins `with improvements' to the bitcoin technology. 

Or, should the coin be daring and emulate the `scarcity' factor in spades... limiting the number of coins available to `just a few' in comparison to Bitcoin... and hope, somehow, that a real `scarcity' value is subscribed to and ascribed to the coin itself... in an era where most coins have a near zero awareness with the general public. Perhaps `the scarcity branding' will be accomplished with an expensive sounding coin brand name? 

Ah yes..... The appropriate branding - essential to all coins .... but perhaps the sweet spot isn't scarcity (?) ...... indeed,  should the positioning on how many coins will be available by the developers be something in-between the HUGE apparent hole in the above... a coin NOT with BILLIONS... but substantially more than BTC, and filling the 20 million to 1 billion coins available positioning

Hmmm. Interesting. I wonder. So, I did the digging I first promised you.

So, what did my analysis find - about the 552 coins listed on CoinMarketCap.Com just a few weeks ago? Sorted by `number available'? 

Well below is a summary ... and a guide of sorts to understand ... probably... just how much `potential' ANY coin really has `if is has a certain volume of coins'... regardless if the developers dream is a dollar a coin (which is about 0.004btc=1.00fiat)..... `a common pipe dream of all levels of scarcity and all types of coins'.

Enough already right? .... are you ready? Here goes... lets start with the Top 50 coins with the `most available' - you better be a coin with a BIG name for this branding... and as you can see below - you will not be disappointed with the biggest available coin:


Segment 1 - Most Abundant Coins Available, top 50
THE BILLIONS AND BILLIONS SEGMENT

In this category, Colossuscoin, with 312 BILLION available takes the cake... at least it has a name to match its Colossus number of coinage, right?... And, the top 50 trails down to the measly 2.1 BILLION available for UFOcoin. BTW, these two coins have market caps below 20K and daily volumes under 20 bucks. Hardly an indication of automatic success by having billions and billions. Tracking these random coins that make up the first and last of a category will also give some insights as to just how HARD the alt coin world is to compete within.

But the real BANG of any of the 10 segments is the CHANCE to be BIG... and this segment DOES THE BEST overall with (10-12) coins in the Top 50 Marketcap AND Top 10 Marketcap (of all 552 coins)
Indeed.... these 10 coins were in each days Top 50 marketcap that I checked:
(shown with fiat value)
these 6 were ranked #11-50 in marketcap

         FIAT
NEM 0.0001
MINT 0.00001
REDD 0.00001
INFINTE 0.000003
BYTE 0.00002
DARK NOTE 0.00006

Segment 1 - TOP 10 MARKETCAP COINS
                           FIAT/USD
#8 - BITSHARES 0.003
#7 DOGE 0.00009
#5 STELLAR 0.0027
#2 RIPPLE 0.00076

EVERY COIN ABOVE WITH A VALUE OF UNDER
10,000 SATOSHIS (0.0000XXXXbtc)

So, big things can come in BIG packages - but, as of now, a self limiting value under 1/3 a cent each for the very best positioned. Indeed, should a price breakthru happen to this category or even a coin in this category - the implications could be enormous.
IMO... the `second bitcoin' will likely come from this segment, but the competition is fierce at the top - and other segments of scarcity also do quite well in gaining real value per coin and per cointype. 
=================================
(You will notice from here on out that I follow the same format as above in bringing each segment to you for analysis.)
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Segment 2 - Very Abundant Coins Available, top 51-100
THE BILLIONS AND HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS SEGMENT

In this category, ANIMEcoin, with 1.9 BILLION available takes the honors... And, the top 100 trails down to the measly 176 MILLION available for Einsteinumcoin. BTW, these two coins have market caps of 4k and 25K and daily volumes under 80 bucks. The randomness of these picks representing the segments is one way of accessing the value of segments in general too.

But the real BANG of any of the 10 segments, as mentioned before,  is the CHANCE to be BIG... and this segment does the worst overall with only 4 coins in the Top 50 Marketcap AND one Top 10 Marketcap coin 
These 4 coins were in the Top 50 marketcap that I checked:
(shown with fiat value)
these 3 were ranked #11-50 in marketcap

         FIAT
NUSHARES 0.002
SYS 
GULDEN 0.001


Segment 2 - TOP 10 MARKETCAP COIN
                           FIAT/USD
#6 - NXT 0.009


EVERY COIN ABOVE WITH A VALUE OF UNDER
10,000 SATOSHIS (0.0000XXXXbtc)

So, big things can come in BIG packages - but, as of now, the self limiting value for these hugely available coins remains at under a cent each for the very best positioned. Indeed, should a price breakthrough happen to this category or even a coin in this category - the implications could again be enormous.
IMO... the `second bitcoin' based on what is charted above -  will likely not come from this segment.
=================================
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Segment 3- Abundant Coins Available, top 101-150
THE TENS OF MILLIONS AND HUNDREDS OF MILLONS SEGMENT

In this category, TAKcoin, with 169 MILLION available takes the honors... And, the top 150 trails down to the measly 58 MILLION available for NAVAJOcoin. BTW, these two coins have market caps of 1k and 250K and daily volumes OF 16 bucks @300 bucks.

But the real BANG of any of the 10 segments is the CHANCE to be BIG... and this segment does the 2nd best overall with  7 coins in the Top 50 Marketcap BUT  had NONE of theTop 10 Marketcap coins.

These 7  coins were in the Top 50 marketcap that I checked:
(shown with fiat value)
these 7 were ranked #11-50 in marketcap

                       FIAT
NAVAJO 0.004
BLACK 0.013
WORLD 0.003
DNOTES 0.011
CRYPTI 0.003
TILE 0.003
FUEL 0.019

The top coins now approach 2 cents fiat in value each - real money.

STILL
EVERY COIN ABOVE WITH A VALUE OF UNDER
10,000 SATOSHIS (0.0000XXXXbtc)

So, big things can come in BIG packages - but, as of now, the self limiting value for these hugely available coins remains at under 2 cents each for the very best positioned. Indeed, should a price breakthrough happen to this category or even a coin in this category - the implications could again be enormous.
IMO... the `second bitcoin' based on what is seen (not even one top 10 marketcap) -  will likely not come from this segment.
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So... a quick rule of thumb on any new coin you are considering investing in... ask and research how many are available of this coin? Because IF you see a pricing in excess of 0.0000xxxx and they are in any of the above categories, beware, ... in other words - a coin that prices itself at say 0.00015000 satoshi out of the gate upon introduction to the public ---- you can BET that coin is going DOWN in value - IF it has more than 58 million coins available.
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Part Two will tackle categories 4,5,6,7 - the post is already written and posted, just keep reading DOWN this page - be ready to be enlightened soon.
Part Two
Part Three
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