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Friday, July 31, 2015

An Impossible Fantasy - The Bitcoin Tulip Gold Rush - BTC At One Million

Readers of Barfstew recently ran across the link (shown below) from the cointelegraph.com about a hedge fund called Wedbush that listed the odds of a BTC price at ONE MILLION dollars by 2016 as ONLY 5,000 to one - they called it the `internet outcome' for BTC's price. Which set my mind into speculation about such a fantasy... and looking ONLY at selected aspects of such an fantasy occurrence. 

As a trader of cryptocurrencies for the past 8 months... what do you think would happen to the other 600+ coins listed on the various crypto exchanges if BTC became 1 million dollars each? No one knows of course... but here's my fantasy prediction:.... and it is dependent on the steepness of the rise (remember in this fantasy this happens in the next four months)... with the first spike taking it to 1,000 dollars from the current 300 dollar levelish...lets say the rise happens in just 4 days, such as  400,600,800,1000 and the market cap for BTC triples roughly to the 12 billion dollar level.... what do YOU think would happen to the price level of OTHER crypto coins?

IN MY OPINION... they would CRASH and crash hard... as EVERYONE would be scrabbling to get as much BTC into hand as possible. 

One coin after another would have whales selling entire positions into the buyers. Coins that would be worth 1000's of satoshi's before the BTC spike, would be going for FRACTIONS of what they were worth the days before (and these would be the FEW attempting to maintain some value in comparison).... I wouldn't be surprised in a quick rise as described above to see most coins sell for 1/10 their prior value (despite it being only a three fold increase) ...few will be spending the increasing value their BTC to buy the now perceived as `junk coins' at this point. 

IMO.

Then, as September approached... the value would again multiply by a factor of 10... to 10,000 per coin - with a market cap now approaching 125 billion for BTC.....  more than enough to catch the attention of the stupid that simply follow whatever grabs the interest of the MSM. 1,000 week one, 3,000 week two, 6,000 week three and 10K week four (you a coin holder can feel your adrenaline rising, right) .....however now, ONLY a handful of coins exist in the exchanges anymore with any real value.....that said, that handful of 15 coins also has a marketcap of 12 billion now(meaning their value too would be growing in relation to previous fiat values) .... however, the `cryptocrash' (for all coins not of the elite 16) will affect the others deeply - with the other 580 coins having nearly NO value...perhaps worth a  half billion total....before their final crash which is to come. All discussion in the crypto world now is focused on `how many coins are truly needed' - a discussion that will affect every holder of any cryptocurrency. 

Because the market flushout is coming in October ... as all shakeouts do.

In October, yet another 10 fold increase,  to 100,000 dollars a coin - which would finally attract the world money movers and governments... and consequently, the actual usage of BTC would have been altered significantly towards big players... hedge funds, governments, pension plans.... everyone wanting to get in before the now talked about 1 million dollar possibility... and with BTC at ONLY 100,000 dollars and with a marketcap of over 1 trillion dollars (as much money value as the IMF has in emergency funds) ... it, Bitcoin,  has become the only player in town for some kinds of HUGE transactions between governments... fiat values for national coins are now being affected by the value of BTC - and how many holders might have some BTC in any society could determine the richness of the nation or society.... many stories surface in China and America, in their MSM's -  about the early traders who are now millionaires...much like the first BTC spike years ago. 

TONS of stories about the folks who ONLY had 1 or 2 full BTC's - and are now `rich' - and additional stories about the ones, the few individuals,  still hanging onto a piece of a BTC coin hoping for even more.... however, with the price rising to 100K....  NO other coins even trade for BTC anymore on ANY of the EXCHANGES -  and a whole second market of crypto begins to develop around the core 15 coins or so.... but the shake out is HARD now that coins NO longer have a value tied to the BTC platform.... even the core coins fall in fiat value from the very inflated figures prior to the cutoff of trading them for BTC.

Finally the Bitcoin Tulip Gold Rush happened in November and December as world markets adjusted to BTC becoming a 1 million dollar product worth a marketcap of 14 Trillion dollars (just about the PERFECT FIT FOR THE WORLD TRADE LEVEL OF 18 TRILLION OR SO).... could this be a goal...? Will BTC be the commodity for WORLD TRADE to end the problem of local currencies fluctuations?

The fantasy ends there as 2016 begins anew.. with a new world TRADE currency established by the money players.... while the banking sector takes a look at Ripple, making it a market leader amid a new crypto market that now looks for functionality  - still worth billions more than before the BTC spike only 120 days prior - but billions less than before the cutoff with BTC exchanges. With traders kicking themselves in the butt for NOT hanging onto pieces of BTC as the spike was happening, or trading them for other, now worthless,  cryptos on the way up... that soon crashed to zero in comparison to BTC.
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IMO the big money could create any scenario they wished with the value of BTC... it's wise to have some...even tiny bits.
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BUY YOUR FIRST BITCOIN AT COINBASE
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I hope you enjoyed today's Bitcoin fantasy... how about spreading it on social media?

Links referred to below:

http://cointelegraph.com/news/114859/investment-firm-wedbush-predicts-400-bitcoin-by-2016-advises-to-buy-gbtc

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/03/25/everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-washingtons-battle-over-the-imf/

https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres14_e/pr721_e.htm

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