Now, one place you can hope to find a more realistic idea of the general and specific economy is to `follow the money' and in America that means one thing - CNBC and it's many `analysts' who all try to tell you their version of the `money truth' as they see it - and then they project that viewpoint onto the government figures about the economy. And, if you don't read between the lines, and aren't a true follower of the money.... you are probably of the pumped up MSM opinion that `things are steadily improving' ... which is the standard positioning you hear.
And, while this post isn't about some predicted crash about to occur - it is about pushing back on some of the various viewpoints that are in such concordance that `things have been fixed' from the Great Recession.... take Jim Cramer's total mystification last week about what appears to be a softening hiring and jobs outlook.
Now, to put together a possible overall view of the positions on CNBC - to be right - one probably needs to pick and choose the best ideas of each logical position offered about what the official numbers mean... like the unemployment numbers, hiring numbers, corporate profits, interest rates, and housing figures and refinance. You know, for a total picture. And, here's my take....
As we all know, the Fed's purpose of printing trillions in fake money was two-fold, - to save the system at the beginning, and to `inflate asset prices' after that point of time. As you know, they are STILL doing so in the 3rd phase of this money pump at a 30 billion a month rate or so... and as you know, that is stated to be ending (unless the government numbers don't allow it to) by the end of the year if not sooner.
Now, WHO's asset prices did the Fed raise... well, of course the folks who have assets.... generally the well off, pension funds, etc. And yes, the man with 401K's would benefit too and feel better. It was hoped that all this fake euphoria would spill over into other assets, like housing, and of course that too is running it's course... it's almost like we are all being brought back to some sort of equilibrium like we had before the BUST of 2007-2008. (2009) - Which, of course, the government figures had us OUT of recession and bad times in no time - ..... and NO ONE believed a word of it. Not a word. They'd barely be able to get away with it now, except for the pounding in by the MSM to those less informed, and not following the money trail.
Of course, the `comeback' for those with money - is not viewed as favorably by those NOT in the money.... a very sizable portion of America. A LARGER portion than existed BEFORE the fraudulent bust of 2008 in banking and housing (and pension funds etc). They busted a part of middle class America and then layered on the debt level on the young who had no jobs to find .... so they, the young, took the government money for a college education that again had no jobs...... and so went even the mobility to escape out of the parents home in many instances.... yet the big money boys are somehow looking for NEW people who are moving up into HOMES?.... yeah, right.
And, more of this also plays out in and because of the inflated figures of HOME values on both coasts metropolitan areas.... remember, since 80% of California's homeowners took the free/fake money of 2003-2006 ... it is the top end that needed to be made whole(r) again... leaving... those in homes that were MUCH more towards the median in value, elsewhere in the country... getting the shaft... those will not recover as much if ever. And in some communities... like the rust belt... it is the bust of a NON ending Great Recession (with folks too poor to get up and move). Detroit and Cleveland come to mind...... where homes that were `cheap' but beautiful in 2006, for 110K, are still at 65K today, and with no prospect of moving any higher. (With Many 20K dollar homes on the next street.) - Where are these folks? Why aren't their concerns on TV?
So, the bottom line is FOR GROWTH - you need either the FED's fake bucks..... or MORE of the middle and working class to somehow be able to be freed from debt and interest to the money centers. Something the powerbrokers will never do. A good 2/3's of all Americans are still too scarred from 2008 to trust the politicians to take care of their interests. To scarred to move, to buy a car, to buy a house... a built in caution with little improvement is the new normal MR Cramer.
The demographics are not of any help, and getting less likely to portray a comeback in the economy, as the new Hispanic class of working folks load up on having multiple children. And no real change in government policy even asking black males to re-enter the work force after decimating their culture via the so-called drug war. (Read police, lawyer, system profits).
What's the new mystery to the talking heads and powers that be?
Where have all the workers that dropped out of the economy during the fraudulent bust of 2008 gone? (I'd mention the increased suicide rate but the media won't.)..... Wouldn't the OBVIOUS answer be `from the middle class'? Or would `into poverty' be more your cup of tea? While the 100 degree summers and 30 below winters beckon those to North Dakota to be part of the dirty oil boom.
Bottom line - there will be no growth within what was once known as the middle class.... only a very slow downward slide. There will be no increase in household formation as the tables and graphs will all need to be re-adjusted.... and the `boom' in auto sales? Well, the surviving middle class is indeed replacing those 11 year old cars.... then, the sales will dip again and the wonder will be.... is the driving of the car no longer affordable to the `middle class'?
Oh, and why oh why isn't America hiring? .... One reason ... there is NO increased demand... and won't be....
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